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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

The EMD sell-off in context

There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction. Read more

What now for Turkey?

Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations. Read more

Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight

EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF. Read more

Emerging views on Brazil elections

Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets. Read more

Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities

Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory. Read more

Will the renminbi rout continue?

Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward. Read more

The trouble with Turkey

While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country. Read more

EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction

The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market. Read more

Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?

Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage Read more

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Read more

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Read more

Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings

We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets. Read more

Election fever strikes Latin America

The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections. Read more

China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health

Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy. Read more

Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt

Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact. Read more

US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt

Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks. Read more

Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging

On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017. Read more

Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?

The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend. Read more

Views from the road: India

Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks. Read more

Views from the road: Zambia

We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability. Read more

Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget

By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Read more

Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’

Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog. Read more

Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings

Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades. Read more

Diverging inflationary trends: Helping unlock alpha opportunities

For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises. Read more

Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries

All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle. Read more

Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone

I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors. Read more

Africa's rising debt: Looking beyond the headlines

While rising African debt levels occupy headlines, we sift fact from fiction below, and discuss how we evaluate opportunities. Read more

Venezuela: Still walking on a tightrope

After a sustained period of consolidation, with median debt to GDP hitting a low of 38.1% in 2008, the exponential rise in commodity prices helped stimulate growth and investment into Africa. Read more

As America turns its back on free trade, emerging markets forge ahead

A silver lining of the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda has been that emerging market (EM) governments have, on the whole, reaffirmed their commitment to freer trade. Read more

Venezuela - 'Refinancing or restructuring'

Last week President Maduro announced that Venezuela was transferring the funds for the payment of the principal and coupon of the PDVSA 2017 bond. PDVSA is the state-owned petroleum company. Read more