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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

17.05.2018
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Read more

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

11.05.2018
No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Read more

Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings

25.04.2018
We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets. Read more

Election fever strikes Latin America

20.04.2018
The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections. Read more

China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health

11.04.2018
Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy. Read more

Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt

27.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact. Read more

US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt

26.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks. Read more

Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging

15.03.2018
On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017. Read more

Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?

08.03.2018
The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend. Read more

Views from the road: India

28.02.2018
Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks. Read more

Views from the road: Zambia

23.02.2018
We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability. Read more

Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget

21.02.2018
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Read more

Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’

14.02.2018
Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog. Read more

Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings

05.02.2018
Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades. Read more

Diverging inflationary trends: Helping unlock alpha opportunities

05.01.2018
For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises. Read more

Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries

21.12.2017
All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle. Read more

Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone

08.12.2017
I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors. Read more

Africa's rising debt: Looking beyond the headlines

27.11.2017
While rising African debt levels occupy headlines, we sift fact from fiction below, and discuss how we evaluate opportunities. Read more

Venezuela: Still walking on a tightrope

20.11.2017
After a sustained period of consolidation, with median debt to GDP hitting a low of 38.1% in 2008, the exponential rise in commodity prices helped stimulate growth and investment into Africa. Read more

As America turns its back on free trade, emerging markets forge ahead

14.11.2017
A silver lining of the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda has been that emerging market (EM) governments have, on the whole, reaffirmed their commitment to freer trade. Read more

Venezuela - 'Refinancing or restructuring'

06.11.2017
Last week President Maduro announced that Venezuela was transferring the funds for the payment of the principal and coupon of the PDVSA 2017 bond. PDVSA is the state-owned petroleum company. Read more

Xi embeds his power and reaffirms policy direction

26.10.2017
The nineteenth National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (the Party) was held from 18 - 24 October, followed by the First Plenary session today (25 October). Read more

Local currency emerging market debt: One of the few remaining pockets of value

23.10.2017
If we turn to yields first, the GBI-EM weighted index yield is hovering around 6% at present. This remains relatively high compared to history, but on a real (inflation adjusted) basis valuations look even more attractive. Read more

Nigeria – Seeing the light at the end of a very long tunnel

16.10.2017
Falling oil prices, an import-dependent economy and multiple policy mistakes by authorities almost tipped Nigeria into depression. Read more

Argentina primaries: A promising, market-friendly result

16.08.2017
The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking a real election just took place in Argentina. It was, however, just a primary – the elections only take place on 22nd October. Read more

Barriers for entry slowly collapsing in Chinese bonds

07.08.2017
Accessing China’s interbank bond market is set to become significantly easier following the implementation of China Hong Kong Bond Connect (CHKBC) in July 2017. Read more