Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt
JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices.
EMD: Volatility creates opportunity
No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars.
Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings
We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets.
Election fever strikes Latin America
The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections.
China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health
Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy.
Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact.
US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks.
Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging
On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017.
Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?
The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend.
Views from the road: India
Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks.
Views from the road: Zambia
We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability.
Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus.
Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’
Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog.
Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings
Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades.
For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises.
Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries
All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle.
Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone
I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors.
Africa's rising debt: Looking beyond the headlines
While rising African debt levels occupy headlines, we sift fact from fiction below, and discuss how we evaluate opportunities.
Venezuela: Still walking on a tightrope
After a sustained period of consolidation, with median debt to GDP hitting a low of 38.1% in 2008, the exponential rise in commodity prices helped stimulate growth and investment into Africa.
As America turns its back on free trade, emerging markets forge ahead
A silver lining of the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda has been that emerging market (EM) governments have, on the whole, reaffirmed their commitment to freer trade.
Venezuela - 'Refinancing or restructuring'
Last week President Maduro announced that Venezuela was transferring the funds for the payment of the principal and coupon of the PDVSA 2017 bond. PDVSA is the state-owned petroleum company.
Xi embeds his power and reaffirms policy direction
The nineteenth National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (the Party) was held from 18 - 24 October, followed by the First Plenary session today (25 October).
Local currency emerging market debt: One of the few remaining pockets of value
If we turn to yields first, the GBI-EM weighted index yield is hovering around 6% at present. This remains relatively high compared to history, but on a real (inflation adjusted) basis valuations look even more attractive.
Nigeria – Seeing the light at the end of a very long tunnel
Falling oil prices, an import-dependent economy and multiple policy mistakes by authorities almost tipped Nigeria into depression.
Argentina primaries: A promising, market-friendly result
The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking a real election just took place in Argentina. It was, however, just a primary – the elections only take place on 22nd October.
Barriers for entry slowly collapsing in Chinese bonds
Accessing China’s interbank bond market is set to become significantly easier following the implementation of China Hong Kong Bond Connect (CHKBC) in July 2017.