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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

Will the renminbi rout continue?

29.08.2018
Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward. Lesen Sie mehr

The trouble with Turkey

09.08.2018
While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country. Lesen Sie mehr

The EMD sell-off in context

23.07.2018
There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction. Lesen Sie mehr

What now for Turkey?

10.07.2018
Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction

14.06.2018
The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market. Lesen Sie mehr

Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?

06.06.2018
Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage Lesen Sie mehr

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

17.05.2018
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

11.05.2018
No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Lesen Sie mehr

Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings

25.04.2018
We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets. Lesen Sie mehr

Election fever strikes Latin America

20.04.2018
The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections. Lesen Sie mehr

China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health

11.04.2018
Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy. Lesen Sie mehr

Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt

27.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact. Lesen Sie mehr

US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt

26.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks. Lesen Sie mehr

Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging

15.03.2018
On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017. Lesen Sie mehr

Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?

08.03.2018
The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend. Lesen Sie mehr

Views from the road: India

28.02.2018
Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks. Lesen Sie mehr

Views from the road: Zambia

23.02.2018
We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability. Lesen Sie mehr

Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget

21.02.2018
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Lesen Sie mehr

Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’

14.02.2018
Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog. Lesen Sie mehr

Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings

05.02.2018
Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades. Lesen Sie mehr

Diverging inflationary trends: Helping unlock alpha opportunities

05.01.2018
For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises. Lesen Sie mehr

Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries

21.12.2017
All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle. Lesen Sie mehr

Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone

08.12.2017
I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors. Lesen Sie mehr

Africa's rising debt: Looking beyond the headlines

27.11.2017
While rising African debt levels occupy headlines, we sift fact from fiction below, and discuss how we evaluate opportunities. Lesen Sie mehr

Venezuela: Still walking on a tightrope

20.11.2017
After a sustained period of consolidation, with median debt to GDP hitting a low of 38.1% in 2008, the exponential rise in commodity prices helped stimulate growth and investment into Africa. Lesen Sie mehr

As America turns its back on free trade, emerging markets forge ahead

14.11.2017
A silver lining of the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda has been that emerging market (EM) governments have, on the whole, reaffirmed their commitment to freer trade. Lesen Sie mehr

Venezuela - 'Refinancing or restructuring'

06.11.2017
Last week President Maduro announced that Venezuela was transferring the funds for the payment of the principal and coupon of the PDVSA 2017 bond. PDVSA is the state-owned petroleum company. Lesen Sie mehr

Xi embeds his power and reaffirms policy direction

26.10.2017
The nineteenth National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (the Party) was held from 18 - 24 October, followed by the First Plenary session today (25 October). Lesen Sie mehr

Local currency emerging market debt: One of the few remaining pockets of value

23.10.2017
If we turn to yields first, the GBI-EM weighted index yield is hovering around 6% at present. This remains relatively high compared to history, but on a real (inflation adjusted) basis valuations look even more attractive. Lesen Sie mehr

Nigeria – Seeing the light at the end of a very long tunnel

16.10.2017
Falling oil prices, an import-dependent economy and multiple policy mistakes by authorities almost tipped Nigeria into depression. Lesen Sie mehr