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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

A fresh take on local EMD

What a total return approach to investing in emerging market local currency debt can mean for investors. Lesen Sie mehr

Argentina – don’t cry; do watch closely

What should fixed income investors make of the outcome of Argentina’s presidential election result? Lesen Sie mehr

Turkey: military incursion is a move backwards

Turkey’s military incursion of northern Syria is a big step backwards but it’s not yet too late to turn the ship around, explains Grant Webster. Lesen Sie mehr

Off the beaten track in Asia: Mongolia

Mongolia is taking impressive steps towards economic stability. Can it successfully tap into its natural capital to secure a sustainable growth path? Lesen Sie mehr

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – September 2019

The EMD Indicator provides an overview of our positioning in a selection of countries, currencies and sectors. This month's edition is now available. Lesen Sie mehr

Saudi oil attack: global spill-over?

The unprecedented attack on a major oil facility in Saudi Arabia has sent shock waves around the world. Where does that leave EM debt investors? Lesen Sie mehr

A class apart: Asia credit emerges

The dollar-denominated Asian corporate debt market has grown significantly in recent years. Now a key part of the EM fixed income universe, we believe Asia credit has never been more relevant to investors. Lesen Sie mehr

All aboard! China bonds enter local debt indices

In the latest step in their integration into the global mainstream, Chinese bonds will join the flagship JP Morgan EM suite of indices early next year. Lesen Sie mehr

Amazon fires highlight need for better data

Brazil’s forest fires underscore how environmental factors can have national-level economic impacts. Investors must work together to develop better analytical tools to assess these risks in sovereign debt portfolios. Lesen Sie mehr

China’s bond (r)evolution

Chinese onshore bonds are now a key component of a leading global bond index – the move to the mainstream is happening. As part of this trend, we’re changing our All China Bond strategy’s performance comparison index to one that best reflects the opportunity set: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate - Chinese Renminbi Index. Lesen Sie mehr

What Argentina’s shock primary result means for bondholders

With a populist government looking set to take power in Argentina later this year, the country’s debt burden may become unsustainable. Portfolio manager Mike Hugman considers the investment implications of the surprise election result. Lesen Sie mehr

Can sovereign debt investors help save the planet?

Understanding environmental risks is key to profiling a country’s economic prospects and its ability to repay debt. Peter and Mike examine how geo-spatial research can help investors to assess these risks and encourage governments to adopt long-term fiscal agendas that serve people and the planet. Lesen Sie mehr

EM corporate credit: all change among the protein protagonists

Asia’s pain could become Latin America’s gain: with swine flu sweeping China and its neighbours, we consider the implications for the corporate credit market. Lesen Sie mehr

EM cycle: on the turn?

The Fed’s latest comments suggest the start of a new emerging markets cycle may be nearer than we thought. Lesen Sie mehr

Indian elections: pensive amid the post-election partying

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party surpassed all expectations to sweep the board in India’s general election. Paving the way for continued reforms, this gives plenty of cause for optimism in what is already one of the world’s fastest growing economies. But we think it’s too soon for fixed income investors to celebrate. Mark Evans explains. Lesen Sie mehr

China’s renminbi: keeping an eye on the prize

The escalation of the US-China trade dispute has weighed on China’s renminbi in recent days, stoking broader fears among emerging market investors. We believe China’s long-term goals will prevent it from allowing significant short-term currency weakness and that these same bold ambitions bode well for the renminbi’s future. Mark Evans explains Lesen Sie mehr

Applying lessons from Latin America’s past to Turkey’s future

Some common threads exist in the richly-diverse emerging market tapestry. And these can provide valuable, if rather unexpected, insights for investors. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa cements the foundations for its future

Markets have welcomed the outcome of South Africa’s election. But we think it’s too soon for long-term investors to crack open the Methode Cap Classique* Lesen Sie mehr

The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities

The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps to reduce dollar use in trade and finance. While the shift is likely to be gradual, the emergence of a multipolar monetary order will have a profound impact on markets and portfolios. Lesen Sie mehr

Takeaways from the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings

As Washington bids farewell to the many central bankers, finance ministers and other senior officials at this year’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, we consider the key takeaways for emerging market debt investors. Mike Hugman (Portfolio Manager) and Werner Gey van Pittius (Co-Head of Emerging Market Sovereign & FX) were there – read their summary of the pertinent points for investors. Lesen Sie mehr

China’s onshore bonds – ready for take-off

China’s onshore bonds have made their debut on a leading bond index, firmly launching them onto the global arena. Our new paper provides an overview of an asset class that is moving to the mainstream and offers potential yield and diversification benefits to investors. Lesen Sie mehr

Active versus passive in emerging market debt: the alpha opportunity

Investors face increasing choice across the investment spectrum, with the active versus passive debate extending its reach. Investors in Emerging Market Debt (EMD) who are weighing up the relative merits of passive or active approaches have a range of factors to consider. In a new paper we share some insights. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa clings on to its investment-grade rating

South Africa has made it through another scheduled Moody’s review to retain its local currency investment-grade rating with a stable outlook. Nazmeera Moola and Grant Webster explain. Lesen Sie mehr

EM debt in pensions: old age needs a new approach

Pressure continues to mount on pension plans, with monetary policy doing little to help the situation. Fortunately, awareness of the merits of emerging market debt is also rising. Lesen Sie mehr

As the dust settles, what next for Mexico?

With the dust starting to settle around Mexico’s new administration and challenges on multiple fronts, investors have much to consider. Antoon de Klerk sifts through the evidence following a recent trip to the country. Lesen Sie mehr

Ukraine: serious decisions

With Ukraine’s presidential race heating up, portfolio manager Grant Webster reports from the country and sizes up the investment backdrop. Lesen Sie mehr

Nigeria elections: same leadership, different backdrop

In Nigeria’s recent election the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, retained his seat. With a more positive backdrop as Buhari heads into his second term, fixed income portfolio manager Thys Louw considers what the future might hold for Nigeria. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa: Mboweni delivers sober budget

South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni, delivered some tough messages in his first budget speech. Lesen Sie mehr

Venezuela: lessons from history

Recent developments in Venezuela have raised hopes for a desperately needed change in political regime. With some investors weighing the potential gains from a debt restructure, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman examines the crisis unfolding in the context of similar historical events across emerging markets and urges caution. Lesen Sie mehr

What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter for EM debt?

With the US economy cooling and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets is drawing near. How should investors approach it? In a new paper, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman offers this suggestion: abandon your preconceptions. Lesen Sie mehr

Bond ambition: China forges ahead

With China’s bond market on track to become second in size only to the US, what do investors need to know? Wilfred Wee recently attended the China Bond Market International Forum in Beijing. Here he shares his key takeaways... Lesen Sie mehr

Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight

EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF. Lesen Sie mehr

Emerging views on Brazil elections

Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets. Lesen Sie mehr

Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities

Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory. Lesen Sie mehr

Will the renminbi rout continue?

Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward. Lesen Sie mehr

The trouble with Turkey

While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country. Lesen Sie mehr

The EMD sell-off in context

There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction. Lesen Sie mehr

What now for Turkey?

Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction

The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market. Lesen Sie mehr

Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?

Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage Lesen Sie mehr

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Lesen Sie mehr