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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

Can sovereign debt investors help save the planet?

Understanding environmental risks is key to profiling a country’s economic prospects and its ability to repay debt. Peter and Mike examine how geo-spatial research can help investors to assess these risks and encourage governments to adopt long-term fiscal agendas that serve people and the planet. Lesen Sie mehr

Emerging Market Debt Indicator – June 2019

The EMD Indicator provides an overview of our positioning in a selection of countries, currencies and sectors. The June edition is now available. Lesen Sie mehr

EM cycle: on the turn?

The Fed’s latest comments suggest the start of a new emerging markets cycle may be nearer than we thought. Lesen Sie mehr

EM corporate credit: all change among the protein protagonists

Asia’s pain could become Latin America’s gain: with swine flu sweeping China and its neighbours, we consider the implications for the corporate credit market. Lesen Sie mehr

Indian elections: pensive amid the post-election partying

Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party surpassed all expectations to sweep the board in India’s general election. Paving the way for continued reforms, this gives plenty of cause for optimism in what is already one of the world’s fastest growing economies. But we think it’s too soon for fixed income investors to celebrate. Mark Evans explains. Lesen Sie mehr

China’s renminbi: keeping an eye on the prize

The escalation of the US-China trade dispute has weighed on China’s renminbi in recent days, stoking broader fears among emerging market investors. We believe China’s long-term goals will prevent it from allowing significant short-term currency weakness and that these same bold ambitions bode well for the renminbi’s future. Mark Evans explains Lesen Sie mehr

Applying lessons from Latin America’s past to Turkey’s future

Some common threads exist in the richly-diverse emerging market tapestry. And these can provide valuable, if rather unexpected, insights for investors. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa cements the foundations for its future

Markets have welcomed the outcome of South Africa’s election. But we think it’s too soon for long-term investors to crack open the Methode Cap Classique* Lesen Sie mehr

The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities

The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps to reduce dollar use in trade and finance. While the shift is likely to be gradual, the emergence of a multipolar monetary order will have a profound impact on markets and portfolios. Lesen Sie mehr

Takeaways from the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings

As Washington bids farewell to the many central bankers, finance ministers and other senior officials at this year’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, we consider the key takeaways for emerging market debt investors. Mike Hugman (Portfolio Manager) and Werner Gey van Pittius (Co-Head of Emerging Market Sovereign & FX) were there – read their summary of the pertinent points for investors. Lesen Sie mehr

China’s onshore bonds – ready for take-off

China’s onshore bonds have made their debut on a leading bond index, firmly launching them onto the global arena. Our new paper provides an overview of an asset class that is moving to the mainstream and offers potential yield and diversification benefits to investors. Lesen Sie mehr

Active versus passive in emerging market debt: the alpha opportunity

Investors face increasing choice across the investment spectrum, with the active versus passive debate extending its reach. Investors in Emerging Market Debt (EMD) who are weighing up the relative merits of passive or active approaches have a range of factors to consider. In a new paper we share some insights. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa clings on to its investment-grade rating

South Africa has made it through another scheduled Moody’s review to retain its local currency investment-grade rating with a stable outlook. Nazmeera Moola and Grant Webster explain. Lesen Sie mehr

EM debt in pensions: old age needs a new approach

Pressure continues to mount on pension plans, with monetary policy doing little to help the situation. Fortunately, awareness of the merits of emerging market debt is also rising. Lesen Sie mehr

As the dust settles, what next for Mexico?

With the dust starting to settle around Mexico’s new administration and challenges on multiple fronts, investors have much to consider. Antoon de Klerk sifts through the evidence following a recent trip to the country. Lesen Sie mehr

Ukraine: serious decisions

With Ukraine’s presidential race heating up, portfolio manager Grant Webster reports from the country and sizes up the investment backdrop. Lesen Sie mehr

Nigeria elections: same leadership, different backdrop

In Nigeria’s recent election the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, retained his seat. With a more positive backdrop as Buhari heads into his second term, fixed income portfolio manager Thys Louw considers what the future might hold for Nigeria. Lesen Sie mehr

South Africa: Mboweni delivers sober budget

South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni, delivered some tough messages in his first budget speech. Lesen Sie mehr

Venezuela: lessons from history

Recent developments in Venezuela have raised hopes for a desperately needed change in political regime. With some investors weighing the potential gains from a debt restructure, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman examines the crisis unfolding in the context of similar historical events across emerging markets and urges caution. Lesen Sie mehr

What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter for EM debt?

With the US economy cooling and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets is drawing near. How should investors approach it? In a new paper, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman offers this suggestion: abandon your preconceptions. Lesen Sie mehr

Bond ambition: China forges ahead

With China’s bond market on track to become second in size only to the US, what do investors need to know? Wilfred Wee recently attended the China Bond Market International Forum in Beijing. Here he shares his key takeaways... Lesen Sie mehr

Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight

EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF. Lesen Sie mehr

Emerging views on Brazil elections

Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets. Lesen Sie mehr

Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities

Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory. Lesen Sie mehr

Will the renminbi rout continue?

Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward. Lesen Sie mehr

The trouble with Turkey

While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country. Lesen Sie mehr

The EMD sell-off in context

There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction. Lesen Sie mehr

What now for Turkey?

Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction

The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market. Lesen Sie mehr

Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?

Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage Lesen Sie mehr

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Lesen Sie mehr

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Lesen Sie mehr

Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings

We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets. Lesen Sie mehr

Election fever strikes Latin America

The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections. Lesen Sie mehr

China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health

Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy. Lesen Sie mehr

Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt

Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact. Lesen Sie mehr

US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt

Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks. Lesen Sie mehr

Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging

On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017. Lesen Sie mehr

Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?

The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend. Lesen Sie mehr

Views from the road: India

Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks. Lesen Sie mehr

Views from the road: Zambia

We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability. Lesen Sie mehr

Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget

By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Lesen Sie mehr