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By Sir Paul Collier
Centre for the Study of African Economies
Department of Economics, and The Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford

A paper prepared for Investec Asset Management

In this piece, Paul Collier presents his most recent thinking about a new era for Africa’s natural resources and the global commodities supercycle. While the past decade was largely about existing producers enjoying windfall gains from rising commodity prices, the coming decade will herald the benefits arising from higher production levels – including the entrance of new global commodity producers on the continent. This article explores the reason for, and implications of, this price-to quantity shift.

The past decade of high commodity prices triggered a burst of investment in prospecting for natural resources worldwide. Having previously attracted only a small share of global investment in prospecting, the African continent – in many ways the last available frontier for new resource discovery – was a significant focal point and beneficiary of this burst over the past decade. This has resulted in a plethora of new resource discoveries that will, along with continued exploration and discovery, have significant implications for the role of natural resources in Africa’s continued economic emergence.

Read From Price to Quantum (PDF 7mb)

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