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了解亚洲对全球市场的影响
Understanding Asia’s impact on global markets
At Investec Asset Management, we have long recognised the importance of China and the impact of its rise. We have steadily built up our presence in Asia, resourced our investment teams accordingly and launched innovative China-focused strategies in both equities and debt, taking advantage of the gradual opening up of both markets. We have also integrated Chinese ideas into our global multi-asset, equity and debt portfolios.
We trust that our InPerspective Forum provided insights into what lies ahead, and the opportunities for the funds that you are involved with.
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Agenda
Day 1 — Thursday, 10 May 2018
Mandarin Oriental Hotel, 5 Connaught Road, Central Hong Kong
08:00 – 08:30 Registration and breakfast 08:30 – 08:45 Welcome and introduction
Domenico Ferrini, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Natalie Phillips, Head of SA Institutional08:45 – 09:45 Becoming a bull in a China shop
Mark Breedon and Wenchang Ma, 4Factor
Educational intention: On 20 June 2017, MSCI announced that, with effect from June 2018, 222 large-cap Chinese A-shares will be included in the MSCI Emerging Market and ACWI indices through a two-stage process. This represents a milestone in the evolution of China’s domestic equity capital markets, the second largest in the world by market capitalisation. As China’s domestic equity market opens up more to foreign institutional investors and MSCI raises its inclusion factor for the A-share market, foreigners will become a larger participant in the A-share market. As a result, we expect correlations with other global equity markets to increase. However, we think this will take a long time, and hence investors who access the opportunity early will enjoy these lower correlations.09:45 – 10:45 How and why will China avoid the landmines that crippled Japan and Brazil?
Michael Power, Strategist in conversation with Dr Hong Liang, Head of Research and Chief Economist at the China International Capital Corporation
Educational intention: China consumes a large share of global commodities, so a view on the prospects for the Chinese economy informs a view on South African exports and the earnings expectations for South African resource companies.10:45 – 11:00 Refreshment break 11:00 – 11:45 The outlook for China from a global multi-asset perspective
Philip Saunders, Multi-Asset
Educational intention: China’s financial markets are becoming increasingly open and accessible, with foreign investors increasingly allocating capital to these markets across various asset classes.11:45 – 12:45 Asia’s “national champions” that are becoming global brands
Charlie Dutton, Quality
Educational intention: The magnitude of the Chinese economy and resulting consumer demand has created a number of global best of breed companies who have the potential to dominate in global markets. Identifying these shares provides attractive outperformance opportunities for global equity investors.12:45 – 15:15 Lunch | Doing business in Asia
Guest speaker: Lance Burbidge, Chief Investor Relations Officer at AIA Group Limited
Introduced by Charlie Dutton
Educational intention: AIA is one of the largest life insurers globally and it continues to grow its business in Asia with a focus on major markets such as China, HK, Singapore and perhaps India as well. However the opportunities that these markets offer go hand in hand with significant challenges. They believe they have a responsibility to play a leadership role in driving economic and social development across the regions they operate in. South African corporates would do well to follow their example.15:15 – 16:15 Setting the scene | The Tencent story
Guest speaker: Charles Searle, Chief Executive Officer at Naspers Internet Listed Assets
Introduced by Wenchang Ma
Educational intention: Naspers owns 31.2% of Tencent, which now accounts for over 100% of its share price. As Naspers is the largest share in all the South African equity market indices, an understanding of this company is crucial for all South African investors.16:15 - 17:00 Hoi Tung, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Ping An Insurance (Group) of China
In conversation with Domenico Ferrini
Educational intention: Ping An is one of the world’s largest insurance companies. Earlier this year Ping An Insurance was ranked by Brand Finance as the world's most valuable insurance brand for the second consecutive year. The Group is the first insurance company in China to have a shareholding structure. Today, it has developed into an integrated financial services conglomerate with three core businesses: insurance, banking, and investment. It will be beneficial for our South African clients to hear from one of our larger Asian institutional clients.17:00 - 17:15 Closing remarks
Natalie Phillips18:45 - 22:15 InPerspective Dinner at China Club
13-14/F, Old Bank of China Building, Central Hong Kong
Guest speaker: James Kynge, Global China Editor, Financial Times
Introduced by Hendrik du Toit, Chief Executive Officer
Educational intention: The growing socio-economic influence of China on the global stage demands that all multi-national companies formulate a view of its impact. How highly problematic governance standards have played out for Chinese companies amidst the promise of China’s ‘new economy’ highlights a theme that is fast becoming universal.
Day 2 – Friday, 11 May 2018
Excursion
06:45 – 07:00 Meet at Mandarin Oriental Hotel for transfer to Shenzhen 07:30 – 10:00 Transfer to Shenzhen 10:00 – 12:00 Group tour of Tencent Headquarters
Tencent Building, Kejizhongyi Avenue, Hi-Tech Park, Nanshan District, Shenzhen, China
Educational intention: Naspers owns 31.2% of Tencent, which now accounts for over 100% of their share price. The prospects for continued earnings growth by Tencent will drive the performance of Naspers’ share listed in the South African market. Therefore understanding this magnificent Technology company is crucial for South African investors.12:00 – 12:45 Transfer to lunch 12:45 – 14:45 Lunch at Futian Shangri-La
Lunch at Futian Shangri-La 4088 Yitian Road, FuTian CBD, Futian Qu, Shenzhen Shi, Guangdong Sheng, China
Conversation with Michael Power
Educational intention: For any investment strategist, an understanding of China’s likely growing impact on the global economy and financial markets is crucial. Michael discusses his outlook for the world’s second largest economy and its influence on other parts of the world.14:45 – 15:30 Transfer to Huawei Technologies and Salubris Pharmaceuticals 15:30 – 16:30 Group tour of Huawei Technologies Headquarters
Refer to delegate escort card | Bantian Huawei Base, Longgang District, Shenzhen, 518129, China
Educational intention: the telecommunications industry makes a significant impact on the global economy and financial markets, as well as in South Africa. An understanding of this leading global information and communications technology solutions provider will illustrate this and provide South African investors a crucial view of possible future trends.15:30 – 16:30 Group tour of Salubris Pharmaceuticals Headquarters
Refer to delegate escort card | Floor 37, Building B, NEO Lvjing Square, No.6009, Shennan Avenue, Futian District, Shenzhen
Educational intention: The healthcare sector is a significant component of the global economy and financial markets. Founded in 1998 and headquartered in Shenzhen, Salubris is an award winning pharmaceutical company that integrates pharmaceutical products, research, production and sales with business in more than 38 countries including China, USA, Germany, France and Japan. Its shareholders include long-term strategic investors such as China’s Social Security Fund and the sovereign wealth funds from France and Singapore. Dedicated to making continuous improvement to human health through cost-effective products of high quality, South African investors (and our NHI) would gain insight from their approach.16:30 – 18:30 Transfer back to Mandarin Oriental Hotel InPerspective Forum 2018 concludes
Evening at leisure -
Speakers
Speaker profiles
Hendrik du Toit - Chief Executive Officer*
Joined the firm in 1991
Joined the industry in 1988Hendrik du Toit is Chief Executive Officer at Investec Asset Management and an executive director of Investec plc and Investec Limited. Hendrik joined the Investec Group in 1991 as founding member of Investec Asset Management. Under his stewardship, Investec Asset Management grew from a small South African start-up to an international specialist asset management firm entrusted with over ZAR 1.7 trillion** of client assets.
Read moreHendrik has served on the Leadership Council of the Sustainable Development Solutions Network, a global initiative for the United Nations since 2014. In 2016 he became a Commissioner on the Business and Sustainable Development Commission. In 2016 he was appointed as a non-executive director of Naspers Limited.
Hendrik holds an MPhil in Economics and Politics of Development from Cambridge University, as well as an MCom in Economics and International Finance (cum laude), BCom in Economics honours degree (cum laude) and a BCom (Law) from Stellenbosch University.
* Subject to regulatory approval, Hendrik du Toit will become Joint CEO of Investec Group as of 01.10.18
** As at 31 December 2017
Domenico (Mimi) Ferrini - Co-Chief Investment Officer*
Joined the firm in 1992
Joined the industry in 1988Mimi is co-Chief Investment Officer at Investec Asset Management. Mimi coordinates the activities of the CIO office and focuses on the development of our investment teams, with overall responsibility for recruitment and talent management.
Read more
Mimi is the United Kingdom based CIO and is a member of the Global Executive Committee. He joined the company in 1992 as one of the founding members of the company and has held various positions including chief trader to portfolio manager and managing director of the South Africa Institutional business.Prior to joining Investec Asset Management, Mimi spent four years in the stockbroking industry. Mimi graduated from the University of South Africa with a degree in Commerce.
*Subject to regulatory approval, Mimi Ferrini will become Joint CEO of Investec Asset Management as of 01.10.18. He will retain his role as Co-CIO.
Natalie Phillips - Head of SA Institutional
Joined the firm in 1997
Joined the industry in 1997Natalie is the head of the South African Institutional team. She began her career with the firm in 1997, initially as a legal advisor and later as an investment analyst in the industrial conglomerates sector.
During 1999 she assumed responsibility for Investec Asset Management’s private client relationships. In 2002, Natalie changed her focus to institutional new business. Since 2002, Natalie has also been responsible for some of the firm’s largest institutional client and consultant relationships.
Read moreNatalie holds a Bachelor of Laws degree (LLB) and a Masters degree in Economics (MA Econ), both from the University of Stellenbosch.
Mark Breedon - Co-Head of 4Factor
Joined the firm in 2003
Joined the industry in 1977Mark is Co-Head of 4Factor at Investec Asset Management. He is the portfolio manager for the Global Strategic Equity Strategy.
Read moreHe joined Investec Asset Management from Alliance Capital Management where he managed portfolios including the $500 million Worldwide Privatisation Fund, NYSE listed Southern Africa Fund, Spain Fund and Austria Fund. Prior to this, he managed developed market equity accounts for Brinson Partners (formerly First Chicago), following an initial three-year spell in research at Vickers da Costa.
Mark graduated with a Bachelor of Arts (Hons) degree in Economics.
Wenchang Ma - 4Factor - Assistant Portfolio Manager
Joined the firm in 2014
Joined the industry in 2009Wenchang is assistant portfolio manager for the All China Equity Strategy in the 4Factor team at Investec Asset Management.
Read more
Prior to joining the firm in 2014, she worked at J.P. Morgan as an equity research analyst covering transportation and logistics. Prior to joining J.P. Morgan in 2010, she did a similar role at Exane BNP Paribas.Wenchang holds a Bachelor’s degree in Economics from Renmin University of China and an MSc in Management, majoring in Finance from HEC Paris. Wenchang is also a CFA Charterholder.
Michael Power - Strategist
Joined the firm in 2002
Joined the industry in 1985Michael joined Investec Asset Management as a strategist in December 2002. His current responsibilities include understanding how the shift in the centre of economic gravity from West to East is impacting on the world of investment and in particular how it is opening up new investment opportunities for Investec’s global client base.
Read moreHe began his career working in the Middle East department of Chase Manhattan Bank before joining Anglo American's corporate finance department in South Africa. Michael then worked in the London corporate finance department of NM Rothschild & Sons where his work had a strong natural resource emphasis. Having completed a 4x4 overland safari through Africa, Michael then worked for HSBC-Equator Bank in Kenya for four years.
He returned to the UK to work at Baring Asset Management as a director in their emerging markets department, where he was head of Africa and the Middle East as well as heading the natural resources sector, and was also portfolio manager for the Pan African Simba Fund. Michael graduated from the University of Cape Town with a Phd in Economics. He also holds an MA in International Business and Law from the Fletcher School at Tufts and a BA in Politics, Philosophy and Economics from the University of Oxford.
Dr. Hong Liang - Head of Research and Chief Economist at the China International Capital Corporation
Dr. Hong Liang joined China International Capital Corporation (CICC) in 2008. She currently serves as the Chief Economist and the Head of the Research Department of the firm. Before that, Dr Liang served as the head of Capital Markets during 2008-2010 and co-head of Sales and Trading during 2011-2013. She is a member of the firm’s Management Committee.
Read moreDr. Liang obtained her Ph.D. in Economics from Georgetown University in 1998 and her Bachelor Degree in International Relations from Peking University in 1991. She joined CICC from Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. where she served as the Managing Director and the chief China Economist & Co-head of Asian Pacific Economic Research during 2003 - 2008. Before that, she worked at the International Monetary Fund as an Economist from 1998 to 2003. She has published widely in both academic as well as leading business journals on exchange rate issues and the Chinese economy.
Philip Saunders - Multi-Asset
Joined the firm in 1981
Joined the industry in 1981Philip is Co-Head of Multi-Asset Growth at Investec Asset Management, he is also a portfolio manager for Multi-Asset total return, global multi-asset and protected strategies.
Read moreHe began his investment career in 1982 as an analyst at Guinness Mahon & Co Limited, assuming management responsibility for the company’s managed currency funds in 1984. In 1987, he became a founding director of Guinness Flight Global Asset Management, which was later acquired by Investec Asset Management in 1998, and led its successful Global Fixed Income team. In 2000 he joined the Multi-Asset team, becoming Head in 2004.
Philip graduated from Cambridge University with a MA in History in 1980.
Charlie Dutton - Quality
Joined the firm in 2016
Joined the industry in 1997Charlie is a portfolio manager in Investec Asset Management’s Quality team. His focus is on global investments, in particular Asian equities.
Prior to joining the firm, Charlie was a portfolio manager at Coupland Cardiff Asset Management, an Asian investment firm with offices in London and Singapore, where he was the lead portfolio manager for CC Asia Alpha, a long-only Asia ex-Japan fund. Before that he held senior positions at J.P. Morgan; he was the director of Asia Pacific Research and head of Asia Pacific Consumer Research.
Read moreCharlie has a Bachelor of Science degree in Geography from Durham University and has passed Level III of the CFA Programme.
Lance Burbidge - Chief Investor Relations Officer, AIA Group Limited
Lance is responsible for the Group’s communication with the investment community. He joined AIA in January 2018 from Autonomous Research in the UK where he worked as a partner in insurance equity research. Before joining Autonomous, Lance ran the insurance equity research team at Redburn Partners for six years. Lance was a highly-ranked sell-side analyst and has been analysing the UK and European insurers since 1999.
Read morePrior to his career as a sell-side analyst, Lance worked as a life actuarial consultant at Deloitte specialising in M&A, asset-liability modelling and with-profits fund management. He is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries and has spent more than 25 years working in the insurance sector. Lance holds a degree in Chemical Engineering from the University of Birmingham and is a keen road cyclist.
Charles Searle - Chief Executive Officer, Naspers Internet Listed Assets
Charles St Leger Searle, is currently Chief Executive Officer of Naspers Internet Listed Assets. He serves on the board of a number of companies associated with the Naspers Group, including Tencent Holdings Limited, a leading Chinese internet company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange where he has served as a non-executive director since 2001.
Read moreCharles is also a member of the boards of the Mail.ru Group, a leading Russian internet company that is listed on the London Stock Exchange and MakeMyTrip Limited which is listed on the NASDAQ.
Charles has been with the Naspers Group for almost 20 years. Prior to joining Naspers, he held positions at Cable & Wireless plc and at Deloitte & Touche in London and Sydney. Charles is a member of the Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia and New Zealand.
Hoi Tung – Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, China Ping An Insurance Overseas (Holdings) Limited
Mr. Tung Hoi is currently the Co-CIO of Ping An Insurance (Group) of China, Ltd. (“Ping An”) and Chairman & CEO of China Ping An Insurance Overseas (Holdings) Limited. He is now dedicating to build up Ping An overseas investment capabilities. From 2014-2016, Mr. Tung was the Co-CIO as well as the Chairman of Investment Committee of Ping An Group. He spent most of his time building up Ping An’s alternatives investment capability, particularly with respect to its overseas investment strategy. Prior to that, from 2004-2014, Mr. Tung was the Chairman and CEO of Ping An Trust Co., Ltd. (“Ping An Trust”), a subsidiary of Ping An.
Read moreUnder his stewardship, Ping An Trust had been transformed to become a leading trust company in China with a total AUM of close to RMB 500bn and a net profit of RMB 2.5bn. Mr. Tung had managed successfully to build a sustainable and profitable business by capturing huge potential in China’s burgeoning asset management/wealth management market through building strong alternative investment capabilities (including direct PE, real estate and infrastructure investments and private credit investments), establishing a sound risk management system and setting up a strong distribution network focused on high net worth individuals.
Before joining Ping An, Mr. Tung was an executive director of Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., advising major financial institutions in the region on restructuring, M&As and capital markets activities. Mr. Tung started his career as a management consultant at McKinsey&Co. Mr. Tung holds a Master’s degree in Engineering Science with first-class honors from Oriel College, University of Oxford, and an MBA from INSEAD.
James Kynge - Global China Editor, Financial Times
With two decades’ experience in the region, James has witnessed China’s transition first hand and seen its influence on exports, brands and treasury bonds. The author of China Shakes The World uncovers the stories as they unfold – from overcapacity to capital outflows and a falling renminbi. He believes it’s part of the transformation into a consumer-led economy. He also examines the country’s expansion along a ‘New Silk Road’ and the slow but steady integration between Chinese and global financial markets.
Read moreJames Kynge is Emerging Markets Editor and Associate Editor at the Financial Times. The winner of the prestigious Harold Wincott award for journalism for his coverage of China and its complex relationship with rest of the world he has spent two decades as a journalist in Asia.
After nine years at Reuters becoming Taiwan and Central Asia Bureau Chief, James spent over a decade covering China and the region for the Financial Times. As well as leading their emerging markets coverage, he also chairs FT Confidential Research, the research service providing data on China and south east Asia and Latin America, which he founded.
James has spent almost half of the last 30 years working in China, including seven as the FT’s bureau chief in Beijing. His award-winning investigative articles have focused on China’s overseas investment push, its grand design to create a ‘New Silk Road’ between Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe, and the slow but steady integration between Chinese and global financial markets. As well as journalism he also headed up the business operations of the Pearson Group of companies in China.
During his time as a journalist, James covered many of the significant events that shaped the region - including the Japanese economic bubble and its deflation, the Tiananmen Square massacre, the independence of Mongolia, the rise to nationhood of the five former Soviet central Asian republics in the early 1990s, the China-Taiwan missile crisis of 1996 followed by Taiwan's first presidential election, the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and China's emergence as a great economic power.
In his editorial and research roles, James looks at the forecasts for the Chinese economy and markets as well as the country’s role on the global stage and the often unreported detail of what’s happening on the ground. He’s also studied the Chinese consumer economy, the growth of the middle class, and the revolution that 415million Chinese millennials might start.
James is also the author of the bestselling award-winning book, China Shakes The World which describes the development of China as a superpower and has been translated into nineteen languages. A fluent Mandarin speaker, James is a regular commentator on Chinese and Asian issues for media outlets including NPR, CNN and the BBC.
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Summaries
Summaries
Welcome and introduction
By Domenico Ferrini and Natalie Phillips
Becoming a bull in a China shop
By Mark Breedon and Wenchang Ma, 4Factor
How and why will China avoid the landmines that crippled Japan and Brazil?
View summaryBy Michael Power, Strategist in conversation with Dr Hong Liang, Head of Research and Chief Economist at the China International Capital Corporation
The outlook for China from a global
multi-asset perspectiveBy Philip Saunders, Multi-Asset
Asia’s “national champions” that are becoming global brands
By Charlie Dutton, Quality
View presentation View summaryDoing business in Asia
By guest speaker: Lance Burbidge, Chief Investor Relations Officer at AIA Group Limited Introduced by Charlie Dutton
View summarySetting the scene | The Tencent story
Guest speaker: Charles Searle, Chief Executive Officer at Naspers Internet Listed Assets
View summaryHoi Tung, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, China Ping An Insurance Overseas (Holdings) Limited
View summaryIn conversation with Domenico Ferrini
James Kynge, Global China Editor, Financial Times
Introduced by Hendrik du Toit, Chief Executive Officer
View summary2018: Year of the Dog
By Michael Power
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Insight
Insight
Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’.
Chinese New year on February 16th ushers in the Year of the Dog, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster. What are the key themes to look out for in the coming canine-related year?
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Zen and the art of bicycle finance
China is in the midst of a bicycle bubble. The Chinese bicycle bubble is now spilling over into the rest of the world and it appears it can tell us a lot about how China is changing internally, and how it is changing the world.
Read more
Viewpoints: US-China trade tensions
Our Equity & Multi-Asset teams discuss the recent trade tensions between the US and China.
Read more
Corporate governance, advocacy and engagement in China: winds of change
Astute investors value good corporate governance, and Chinese companies have paid attention; however, investing wisely in China requires more than taking information provided at face value.
Read more Listen now
China: The Second Great Transformation
A new generation of highly competent and effective leaders, with Xi Jinping at its head, is driving China’s ‘Second Great Transformation’. If successful, it promises to shape the world order in ways the West has just begun to appreciate.
Read more
China Hub
We examine the evolution of China’s capital markets and its potential impact on global markets. Read more to understand the investment opportunity that we believe China offers.
Read more
Destined for war - Can America and China escape Thucydides’s Trap?
China and the United States are heading toward a war neither wants. Read more about the book referenced by Michael Power at our recent InPerspective Forum in Hong Kong, which looks at a deadly pattern of structural stress that results when a rising power challenges a ruling one.
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