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Venezuela: lessons from history
15.02.2019
Recent developments in Venezuela have raised hopes for a desperately needed change in political regime. With some investors weighing the potential gains from a debt restructure, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman examines the crisis unfolding in the context of similar historical events across emerging markets and urges caution.
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What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter for EM debt?
12.02.2019
With the US economy cooling and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets is drawing near. How should investors approach it? In a new paper, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman offers this suggestion: abandon your preconceptions.
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Bond ambition: China forges ahead
24.01.2019
With China’s bond market on track to become second in size only to the US, what do investors need to know? Wilfred Wee recently attended the China Bond Market International Forum in Beijing. Here he shares his key takeaways...
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Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight
23.10.2018
EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF.
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Emerging views on Brazil elections
17.10.2018
Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets.
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Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities
26.09.2018
Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory.
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Will the renminbi rout continue?
29.08.2018
Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward.
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The trouble with Turkey
09.08.2018
While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country.
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The EMD sell-off in context
25.07.2018
There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction.
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What now for Turkey?
11.07.2018
Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations.
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EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction
14.06.2018
The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market.
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Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?
06.06.2018
Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage
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JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts
17.05.2018
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices.
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EMD: Volatility creates opportunity
11.05.2018
No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars.
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Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings
25.04.2018
We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets.
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Election fever strikes Latin America
20.04.2018
The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections.
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China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health
11.04.2018
Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy.
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Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt
27.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact.
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US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt
26.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks.
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Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging
15.03.2018
On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017.
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Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?
08.03.2018
The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend.
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Views from the road: India
28.02.2018
Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks.
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Views from the road: Zambia
23.02.2018
We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability.
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Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget
21.02.2018
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus.
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Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’
14.02.2018
Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog.
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Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings
05.02.2018
Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades.
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Diverging inflationary trends: Helping unlock alpha opportunities
05.01.2018
For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises.
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Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries
21.12.2017
All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle.
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Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone
08.12.2017
I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors.
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Africa's rising debt: Looking beyond the headlines
27.11.2017
While rising African debt levels occupy headlines, we sift fact from fiction below, and discuss how we evaluate opportunities.
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Venezuela: Still walking on a tightrope
20.11.2017
After a sustained period of consolidation, with median debt to GDP hitting a low of 38.1% in 2008, the exponential rise in commodity prices helped stimulate growth and investment into Africa.
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As America turns its back on free trade, emerging markets forge ahead
14.11.2017
A silver lining of the Trump administration’s protectionist agenda has been that emerging market (EM) governments have, on the whole, reaffirmed their commitment to freer trade.
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Venezuela - 'Refinancing or restructuring'
06.11.2017
Last week President Maduro announced that Venezuela was transferring the funds for the payment of the principal and coupon of the PDVSA 2017 bond. PDVSA is the state-owned petroleum company.
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Xi embeds his power and reaffirms policy direction
26.10.2017
The nineteenth National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (the Party) was held from 18 - 24 October, followed by the First Plenary session today (25 October).
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Local currency emerging market debt: One of the few remaining pockets of value
23.10.2017
If we turn to yields first, the GBI-EM weighted index yield is hovering around 6% at present. This remains relatively high compared to history, but on a real (inflation adjusted) basis valuations look even more attractive.
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Nigeria – Seeing the light at the end of a very long tunnel
16.10.2017
Falling oil prices, an import-dependent economy and multiple policy mistakes by authorities almost tipped Nigeria into depression.
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Argentina primaries: A promising, market-friendly result
16.08.2017
The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking a real election just took place in Argentina. It was, however, just a primary – the elections only take place on 22nd October.
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Barriers for entry slowly collapsing in Chinese bonds
07.08.2017
Accessing China’s interbank bond market is set to become significantly easier following the implementation of China Hong Kong Bond Connect (CHKBC) in July 2017.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and all investments carry the risk of capital loss.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. All of the views expressed about the markets, securities or companies reflect the personal views of the individual fund manager (or team) named. While opinions stated are honestly held, they are not guarantees and should not be relied on. Investec Asset Management in the normal course of its activities as an international investment manager may already hold or intend to purchase or sell the stocks mentioned on behalf of its clients. The information or opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. This content may contains statements about expected or anticipated future events and financial results that are forward-looking in nature and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, such as general economic, market and business conditions, new legislation and regulatory actions, competitive and general economic factors and conditions and the occurrence of unexpected events. Actual results may differ materially from those stated herein.