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Big picture policies: what a shift in IMF focus means for investors
12.11.2019
Thys Louw and Grant Webster reflect on developments at the IMF that go beyond just a change in leadership.
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A fresh take on local EMD
06.11.2019
What a total return approach to investing in emerging market local currency debt can mean for investors.
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Argentina – don’t cry; do watch closely
30.10.2019
What should fixed income investors make of the outcome of Argentina’s presidential election result?
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Turkey: military incursion is a move backwards
16.10.2019
Turkey’s military incursion of northern Syria is a big step backwards but it’s not yet too late to turn the ship around, explains Grant Webster.
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Off the beaten track in Asia: Mongolia
15.10.2019
Mongolia is taking impressive steps towards economic stability. Can it successfully tap into its natural capital to secure a sustainable growth path?
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Emerging Market Debt Indicator – September 2019
14.10.2019
The EMD Indicator provides an overview of our positioning in a selection of countries, currencies and sectors. This month's edition is now available.
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Saudi oil attack: global spill-over?
20.09.2019
The unprecedented attack on a major oil facility in Saudi Arabia has sent shock waves around the world. Where does that leave EM debt investors?
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A class apart: Asia credit emerges
18.09.2019
The dollar-denominated Asian corporate debt market has grown significantly in recent years. Now a key part of the EM fixed income universe, we believe Asia credit has never been more relevant to investors.
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All aboard! China bonds enter local debt indices
18.09.2019
In the latest step in their integration into the global mainstream, Chinese bonds will join the flagship JP Morgan EM suite of indices early next year.
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Amazon fires highlight need for better data
29.08.2019
Brazil’s forest fires underscore how environmental factors can have national-level economic impacts. Investors must work together to develop better analytical tools to assess these risks in sovereign debt portfolios.
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China’s bond (r)evolution
27.08.2019
Chinese onshore bonds are now a key component of a leading global bond index – the move to the mainstream is happening. As part of this trend, we’re changing our All China Bond strategy’s performance comparison index to one that best reflects the opportunity set: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate - Chinese Renminbi Index.
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What Argentina’s shock primary result means for bondholders
13.08.2019
With a populist government looking set to take power in Argentina later this year, the country’s debt burden may become unsustainable. Portfolio manager Mike Hugman considers the investment implications of the surprise election result.
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Can sovereign debt investors help save the planet?
17.07.2019
Understanding environmental risks is key to profiling a country’s economic prospects and its ability to repay debt. Peter and Mike examine how geo-spatial research can help investors to assess these risks and encourage governments to adopt long-term fiscal agendas that serve people and the planet.
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EM corporate credit: all change among the protein protagonists
07.06.2019
Asia’s pain could become Latin America’s gain: with swine flu sweeping China and its neighbours, we consider the implications for the corporate credit market.
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EM cycle: on the turn?
06.06.2019
The Fed’s latest comments suggest the start of a new emerging markets cycle may be nearer than we thought.
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Indian elections: pensive amid the post-election partying
30.05.2019
Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party surpassed all expectations to sweep the board in India’s general election. Paving the way for continued reforms, this gives plenty of cause for optimism in what is already one of the world’s fastest growing economies. But we think it’s too soon for fixed income investors to celebrate. Mark Evans explains.
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China’s renminbi: keeping an eye on the prize
24.05.2019
The escalation of the US-China trade dispute has weighed on China’s renminbi in recent days, stoking broader fears among emerging market investors. We believe China’s long-term goals will prevent it from allowing significant short-term currency weakness and that these same bold ambitions bode well for the renminbi’s future. Mark Evans explains
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Applying lessons from Latin America’s past to Turkey’s future
21.05.2019
Some common threads exist in the richly-diverse emerging market tapestry. And these can provide valuable, if rather unexpected, insights for investors.
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South Africa cements the foundations for its future
15.05.2019
Markets have welcomed the outcome of South Africa’s election. But we think it’s too soon for long-term investors to crack open the Methode Cap Classique*
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The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities
29.04.2019
The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps to reduce dollar use in trade and finance. While the shift is likely to be gradual, the emergence of a multipolar monetary order will have a profound impact on markets and portfolios.
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Takeaways from the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings
16.04.2019
As Washington bids farewell to the many central bankers, finance ministers and other senior officials at this year’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, we consider the key takeaways for emerging market debt investors. Mike Hugman (Portfolio Manager) and Werner Gey van Pittius (Co-Head of Emerging Market Sovereign & FX) were there – read their summary of the pertinent points for investors.
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China’s onshore bonds – ready for take-off
05.04.2019
China’s onshore bonds have made their debut on a leading bond index, firmly launching them onto the global arena.
Our new paper provides an overview of an asset class that is moving to the mainstream and offers potential yield and diversification benefits to investors.
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Active versus passive in emerging market debt: the alpha opportunity
04.04.2019
Investors face increasing choice across the investment spectrum, with the active versus passive debate extending its reach. Investors in Emerging Market Debt (EMD) who are weighing up the relative merits of passive or active approaches have a range of factors to consider. In a new paper we share some insights.
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South Africa clings on to its investment-grade rating
01.04.2019
South Africa has made it through another scheduled Moody’s review to retain its local currency investment-grade rating with a stable outlook. Nazmeera Moola and Grant Webster explain.
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EM debt in pensions: old age needs a new approach
28.03.2019
Pressure continues to mount on pension plans, with monetary policy doing little to help the situation. Fortunately, awareness of the merits of emerging market debt is also rising.
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As the dust settles, what next for Mexico?
20.03.2019
With the dust starting to settle around Mexico’s new administration and challenges on multiple fronts, investors have much to consider. Antoon de Klerk sifts through the evidence following a recent trip to the country.
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Ukraine: serious decisions
05.03.2019
With Ukraine’s presidential race heating up, portfolio manager Grant Webster reports from the country and sizes up the investment backdrop.
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Nigeria elections: same leadership, different backdrop
01.03.2019
In Nigeria’s recent election the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, retained his seat. With a more positive backdrop as Buhari heads into his second term, fixed income portfolio manager Thys Louw considers what the future might hold for Nigeria.
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South Africa: Mboweni delivers sober budget
22.02.2019
South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni, delivered some tough messages in his first budget speech.
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Venezuela: lessons from history
15.02.2019
Recent developments in Venezuela have raised hopes for a desperately needed change in political regime. With some investors weighing the potential gains from a debt restructure, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman examines the crisis unfolding in the context of similar historical events across emerging markets and urges caution.
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What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter for EM debt?
12.02.2019
With the US economy cooling and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets is drawing near. How should investors approach it? In a new paper, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman offers this suggestion: abandon your preconceptions.
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Bond ambition: China forges ahead
24.01.2019
With China’s bond market on track to become second in size only to the US, what do investors need to know? Wilfred Wee recently attended the China Bond Market International Forum in Beijing. Here he shares his key takeaways...
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Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight
23.10.2018
EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF.
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Emerging views on Brazil elections
17.10.2018
Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets.
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Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities
26.09.2018
Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory.
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Will the renminbi rout continue?
29.08.2018
Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward.
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The trouble with Turkey
09.08.2018
While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country.
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The EMD sell-off in context
25.07.2018
There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction.
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What now for Turkey?
11.07.2018
Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations.
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EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction
14.06.2018
The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market.
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Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?
06.06.2018
Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage
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JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts
17.05.2018
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices.
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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and all investments carry the risk of capital loss.
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. All of the views expressed about the markets, securities or companies reflect the personal views of the individual fund manager (or team) named. While opinions stated are honestly held, they are not guarantees and should not be relied on. Investec Asset Management in the normal course of its activities as an international investment manager may already hold or intend to purchase or sell the stocks mentioned on behalf of its clients. The information or opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. This content may contains statements about expected or anticipated future events and financial results that are forward-looking in nature and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, such as general economic, market and business conditions, new legislation and regulatory actions, competitive and general economic factors and conditions and the occurrence of unexpected events. Actual results may differ materially from those stated herein.