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Emerging Perspectives

Our expert team examines the dynamic world of emerging market debt

China’s renminbi: keeping an eye on the prize

24.05.2019
The escalation of the US-China trade dispute has weighed on China’s renminbi in recent days, stoking broader fears among emerging market investors. We believe China’s long-term goals will prevent it from allowing significant short-term currency weakness and that these same bold ambitions bode well for the renminbi’s future. Mark Evans explains Read more

Applying lessons from Latin America’s past to Turkey’s future

21.05.2019
Some common threads exist in the richly-diverse emerging market tapestry. And these can provide valuable, if rather unexpected, insights for investors. Read more

South Africa cements the foundations for its future

15.05.2019
Markets have welcomed the outcome of South Africa’s election. But we think it’s too soon for long-term investors to crack open the Methode Cap Classique* Read more

The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities

29.04.2019
The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps to reduce dollar use in trade and finance. While the shift is likely to be gradual, the emergence of a multipolar monetary order will have a profound impact on markets and portfolios. Read more

Takeaways from the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings

16.04.2019
As Washington bids farewell to the many central bankers, finance ministers and other senior officials at this year’s World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings, we consider the key takeaways for emerging market debt investors. Mike Hugman (Portfolio Manager) and Werner Gey van Pittius (Co-Head of Emerging Market Sovereign & FX) were there – read their summary of the pertinent points for investors. Read more

China’s onshore bonds – ready for take-off

05.04.2019
China’s onshore bonds have made their debut on a leading bond index, firmly launching them onto the global arena. Our new paper provides an overview of an asset class that is moving to the mainstream and offers potential yield and diversification benefits to investors. Read more

Active versus passive in emerging market debt: the alpha opportunity

04.04.2019
Investors face increasing choice across the investment spectrum, with the active versus passive debate extending its reach. Investors in Emerging Market Debt (EMD) who are weighing up the relative merits of passive or active approaches have a range of factors to consider. In a new paper we share some insights. Read more

South Africa clings on to its investment-grade rating

01.04.2019
South Africa has made it through another scheduled Moody’s review to retain its local currency investment-grade rating with a stable outlook. Nazmeera Moola and Grant Webster explain. Read more

EM debt in pensions: old age needs a new approach

28.03.2019
Pressure continues to mount on pension plans, with monetary policy doing little to help the situation. Fortunately, awareness of the merits of emerging market debt is also rising. Read more

As the dust settles, what next for Mexico?

20.03.2019
With the dust starting to settle around Mexico’s new administration and challenges on multiple fronts, investors have much to consider. Antoon de Klerk sifts through the evidence following a recent trip to the country. Read more

Ukraine: serious decisions

05.03.2019
With Ukraine’s presidential race heating up, portfolio manager Grant Webster reports from the country and sizes up the investment backdrop. Read more

Nigeria elections: same leadership, different backdrop

01.03.2019
In Nigeria’s recent election the incumbent president, Muhammadu Buhari, retained his seat. With a more positive backdrop as Buhari heads into his second term, fixed income portfolio manager Thys Louw considers what the future might hold for Nigeria. Read more

South Africa: Mboweni delivers sober budget

22.02.2019
South Africa’s finance minister, Tito Mboweni, delivered some tough messages in his first budget speech. Read more

Venezuela: lessons from history

15.02.2019
Recent developments in Venezuela have raised hopes for a desperately needed change in political regime. With some investors weighing the potential gains from a debt restructure, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman examines the crisis unfolding in the context of similar historical events across emerging markets and urges caution. Read more

What can past market regimes tell us about the next chapter for EM debt?

12.02.2019
With the US economy cooling and interest rates approaching a likely peak, a new cycle in emerging markets is drawing near. How should investors approach it? In a new paper, Portfolio Manager Mike Hugman offers this suggestion: abandon your preconceptions. Read more

Bond ambition: China forges ahead

24.01.2019
With China’s bond market on track to become second in size only to the US, what do investors need to know? Wilfred Wee recently attended the China Bond Market International Forum in Beijing. Here he shares his key takeaways... Read more

Notes from the road: Serbian fixed income in the spotlight

23.10.2018
EMD portfolio manager Michail Diamantopoulos recently visited the capital of Serbia for a series of meetings with key policy makers, local investors and financial institutions including the IMF. Read more

Emerging views on Brazil elections

17.10.2018
Vivienne Taberer, Portfolio Manager at Investec Asset Management, talks to Lindsay Williams about the current situation in Brazil and what these elections mean for emerging markets. Read more

Notes from the Road: Poland and Romania. A tale of two cities

26.09.2018
Portfolio Manager Michail Diamantopoulos, fresh from travels to central and eastern Europe, explains populist Poland’s low inflation advantage, and reports on Romania’s faltering fiscal trajectory. Read more

Will the renminbi rout continue?

29.08.2018
Is this the end of the rout in the renminbi or is there further to go? All China Bond Portfolio Manager Wilfred Wee revisits recent developments and considers how Chinese authorities might react going forward. Read more

The trouble with Turkey

09.08.2018
While most markets have rallied in recent weeks, Turkey has been the noticeable exception – it is the only country to have a material negative return. In this blog post we outline the reasons for this latest sell-off in Turkish assets and examine the various paths ahead for the country. Read more

The EMD sell-off in context

25.07.2018
There have been what we consider some misguided comparisons with the 2013 ‘Taper Tantrum’. Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans, explains why we think this is quite a different sell-off, more akin to a typical mid-cycle market correction. Read more

What now for Turkey?

11.07.2018
Portfolio Manager Grant Webster was on the ground in Turkey on election night and for the aftermath - he provides his observations. Read more

EMD sell-off: mid-cycle correction

14.06.2018
The constructive global backdrop suggests that the recent sell-off in EMD is a mid-cycle market correction rather than the start of a bear market. Read more

Chinese real estate developers: Is bigger really better?

06.06.2018
Tammy Lloyd, Analyst for Emerging Market Fixed Income, on a recent visit to China assesses which real estate developers can succeed in a market under pressure to reduce leverage Read more

JP Morgan ESG EMD indices – our initial thoughts

17.05.2018
Co-Head of Emerging Market Fixed Income, Peter Eerdmans shares the team’s initial thoughts on the new suits of JP Morgan ESG EMD indices. Read more

EMD: Volatility creates opportunity

11.05.2018
No doubt EMD has experienced a challenging few weeks with emerging currencies and EM credit spreads all falling in value when measured in US dollars. Read more

Views on frontier markets from the IMF spring meetings

25.04.2018
We recently attended the International Monetary Fund (IMF) spring meetings in Washington D.C. We had the opportunity to engage with various policymakers, investors and IMF representatives across frontier markets. Read more

Election fever strikes Latin America

20.04.2018
The results of widespread elections across Latin American countries this year will drive policy into the next decade, with six presidential elections on a full calendar that also includes a referendum and several legislative elections. Read more

China: shifting focus from financial to environmental health

11.04.2018
Last month we attended a trip hosted by CICC in China to gain a deeper ‘on the ground’ understanding of the health of the Chinese economy. Read more

Libor rate rise and its impact on Emerging Market Debt

27.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that outside corporate credit markets, the sharp rise in Libor should not have a deep economic impact. Read more

US Tariffs and their effects on Emerging Market Debt

26.03.2018
Mike Hugman, Emerging Markets Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, argues that this round of actions is now largely announced and reflected in markets and will create opportunities to add risk to portfolios via EM currencies and equities in coming weeks. Read more

Kenya: A difficult 2017 but a more favourable picture is emerging

15.03.2018
On a recent research trip to sub-Saharan Africa, we included a visit to Kenya to gain a better understanding of the country’s economic health after a disastrous 2017. Read more

Tariffs, targets and term limits – where to from here for China?

08.03.2018
The last couple of weeks have been busy for China watchers – from the announcement of the removal of presidential term limits to Trump’s tariff announcements and the opening of the two-week National People’s Congress (NPC) at the weekend. Read more

Views from the road: India

28.02.2018
Mark Evans discusses his recent trip to India and his concerns over the politics, inflation and the capital adequacy of some of the public sector banks. Read more

Views from the road: Zambia

23.02.2018
We recently completed a Zambian research trip, researching economic policy, politics, IMF programmes and debt sustainability. Read more

Ramaphosa’s South Africa delivers market pleasing budget

21.02.2018
By raising South Africa’s VAT rate from 14% to 15%, the South African government indicated a willingness to take difficult (and unpopular) decisions in order to stabilise the fiscus. Read more

Five investment themes for the ‘Year of the Dog’

14.02.2018
Chinese New Year is set to arrive on 16 February 2018, leaving behind the Year of the Rooster and ushering in the Year of the Dog. Read more

Improving emerging market credit dynamics yet to be reflected in ratings

05.02.2018
Over the last few years, we've seen more sovereign downgrades than upgrades. Read more

Diverging inflationary trends: Helping unlock alpha opportunities

05.01.2018
For emerging markets (EMs), 2017 represented a year of disinflationary surprises. Read more

Emerging market elections; market-pleasing results in three countries

21.12.2017
All in all, these three results were encouraging. This may well set the scene for further positive outcomes in the busy 2018 election cycle. Read more

Once unthinkable policy progress being made across the Southern Cone

08.12.2017
I just spent a week in the Southern Cone in Latin America, meeting with policy makers, political analysts, think tanks, NGOs and local investors. Read more

Important information

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and all investments carry the risk of capital loss.

This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities. All of the views expressed about the markets, securities or companies reflect the personal views of the individual fund manager (or team) named. While opinions stated are honestly held, they are not guarantees and should not be relied on. Investec Asset Management in the normal course of its activities as an international investment manager may already hold or intend to purchase or sell the stocks mentioned on behalf of its clients. The information or opinions provided should not be taken as specific advice on the merits of any investment decision. This content may contains statements about expected or anticipated future events and financial results that are forward-looking in nature and, as a result, are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, such as general economic, market and business conditions, new legislation and regulatory actions, competitive and general economic factors and conditions and the occurrence of unexpected events. Actual results may differ materially from those stated herein.